India’s economy has recovered from the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic and surpassed its pre-pandemic levels. This transformation has been driven by measures taken to achieve robust post-pandemic improvements in infrastructure, supply chains, and the digital sector.
Compared to India, economies like the US, China, Russia, and Euro-Asia are still struggling to recover from the pandemic’s shock. Jason Furman, a professor of economics at Harvard University and chairman of former US President Barack Obama’s three-member Council of Economic Advisors, presented this roadmap based on data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and relevant countries. Using various charts, Furman compared the gross domestic product (GDP) of India, the US, the Euro Area (European Union), Russia, and China, and presented projected growth rates. Data from 2019 to the third quarter of 2025 has been assessed. GDP growth projected to be 10%
According to Furman’s estimates, India’s GDP will reach 10% by the third quarter of 2025, surpassing the pre-COVID real GDP trend. These factors are expected to make India the world’s third-largest economy by the end of this year. US GDP will also grow during this period, but its growth will be around 5%. Meanwhile, China and the Euro Area will remain well below the trends, at minus 10% and minus 5%, respectively.
The main reasons for this are the crisis in China’s property sector and the demographic slowdown, as well as the weakening of Europe’s energy sector due to the Ukraine war. In comparison, despite Western sanctions following the Ukraine war, Russia’s GDP is on its pre-pandemic path. Although its pace has slowed, it remains positive and remains at around 1.1 percent.
India’s GDP growth is less than other countries
The chart presented by Furman based on his analysis of the data clearly shows that when the COVID-19 pandemic spread in 2020, the global economy was adversely affected. However, even during this period, India’s economy experienced a lesser decline than other countries, remaining between minus 5 and 10 percent. GDP in the Euro Area fell below minus 20 percent, while the US’s was minus 10 percent, and China and Russia also remained below zero.
India performed a miracle
According to Furman, India’s progress after the COVID-19 pandemic is nothing short of miraculous. India not only restored its supply chain, which had been devastated by the pandemic, but also effectively managed the situation created by the lockdown and the global crisis. India strengthened digital infrastructure like UPI, increased spending on infrastructure like roads, and boosted information technology and pharmaceutical exports.
