A new power struggle is currently underway in Pakistan. Following the 27th Constitutional Amendment, Asim Munir could become the country’s first CDF, but the government will have to issue a notification, and the Shahbaz regime is delaying this. Meanwhile, Pakistan Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Babar Sidhu’s meeting with Nawaz Sharif has sparked a new maneuver.
The massive political and military turmoil currently facing Pakistan is not just about the appointment of a new Chief of Defence Staff (CDF). The real story appears to be much deeper than that. This appears to be a preparation for a complete reset of power in Pakistan, with Asim Munir, Shahbaz Sharif, Nawaz Sharif, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, and top military officials all making their own moves.
On November 12th, the 27th Constitutional Amendment Bill was passed in Pakistan. This created the post of Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), effectively becoming Pakistan’s highest-ranking position. This position appears destined to be given to Pakistan’s current Army Chief, Asim Munir. However, more than 20 days have passed since the bill was passed. The Prime Minister has yet to sign the notification. Five days have passed since the bill’s extension. Furthermore, Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Babar Sidhu has openly opposed Munir’s appointment as CDF. This reveals another aspect of Pakistan’s politics and power dynamics.
No Notification, No Signature Expected
Pakistan’s Parliament created this new position on November 12th by amending the law to grant the Army Chief more powers. Had the notification been issued on time, Asim Munir would have gained direct control over the country’s nuclear weapons, becoming the most influential person in Pakistan. But Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has not yet signed the document. Once the notification is issued, Munir would have become the supreme military commander of the three armed forces: the Army, Air Force, and Navy.
Since Asim Munir’s three-year extension has been extended to five years, his position is secure. However, a day before the notification was issued, Shahbaz Sharif visited Bahrain on November 26th and suddenly left for London the next day. He was scheduled to return home on December 1st, but no official information has been released regarding his presence. Although information came that he had returned to Pakistan, his plane did not land at the seat of power. Several media reports claim that Shahbaz Sharif deliberately distanced himself from the process to avoid the obligation to sign Munir’s new appointment.
When Asim Munir receives a 3-year extension
Although his tenure has been extended to 5 years, his position is secure. However, Shahbaz Sharif visited Bahrain on November 26th, a day before the notification was issued, and then abruptly departed for London the next day. He was scheduled to return home on December 1st, but no official information has been released regarding his presence. Although information surfaced that he had returned to Pakistan, his plane did not land at the seat of power. Several media reports claim that Shahbaz Sharif deliberately distanced himself from the process so that he would not be obligated to sign Munir’s new appointment.
The real battle isn’t over a single position, but over the entire ‘command structure.’
After the end of Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir’s tenure, there was hope ସthat he would be appointed CDF. The Constitution was amended this year, paving the way for this. But for five days, silence prevailed, with neither the government making any announcement nor any indication from GHQ. This is where the twist in the game began. According to former military officer Adil Raja, Air Force Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Babar Sidhu met directly with Nawaz Sharif and presented his claim to be appointed CDF. He used the same argument that Asim Munir had used in his favor: Pakistan’s military success during the May clash with India was linked to the leadership and capability of the Air Force. Thus, Munir’s card was used against Munir.
Nawaz-Sidhu Proximity: The ‘Punjab Factor’ Also at Play
Shahbaz Sharif suddenly left for London before signing the notification appointing the CDF. This indicates that the decision on who will occupy the CDF’s chair is being finalized elsewhere, in London. Sources suggest that Nawaz Sharif is also considering whether the CDF should be solely from the army, or is it time to introduce a tri-force model in Pakistan? This question has thrown the entire power structure into uncertainty. Adil Raja, a former Pakistani soldier, claims that Sidhu’s family has long ties with the PML-N. His younger brother was elected to power in the Punjab elections on a PML-N ticket. This makes Sidhu seen as the Nawaz camp’s “natural choice.” Is Nawaz preparing to change the traditional power structure in Rawalpindi by appointing his trusted figure as CDF?
Munir’s crisis: A powerful general’s position is surrounded by trouble.
Munir’s tenure has already been extended from three to five years, so his current position is secure. However, becoming CDF would extend his term until 2030. Defense Minister Khawaja Asif says the process for appointing a CDF has been initiated, and the notification will be finalized once Shahbaz Sharif returns to Islamabad. Meanwhile, Asim Munir still has the strongest institutional support within the Pakistan Army. If appointed CDF, he would retain the title of Field Marshal for life, be able to make decisions across all three armed forces, and face no legal action against him—a constitutional dictatorship. However, Sidhu’s rebellion and Nawaz Sharif’s silence indicate that the path will not be so easy.
A strong challenge from the Air Force, i.e., Chief vs. Chief
Many analysts say the delay in appointing a CDF indicates that serious differences remain within the upper echelons of power. According to legal experts, until a formal order is issued, Asim Munir’s original three-year term as Army Chief has technically ended. Following the constitutional amendment, the former CJCSC position ended on November 27th, and Shahid Shamshad Mirza also retired on the same day. However, a new CDF has not yet been appointed in his place, despite the requirement for this action to be completed by November 28th or 29th. According to Pakistani media, Mirza’s retirement program also questioned why the CDF position should be held exclusively by the Army.
The picture now emerges is quite clear:
Army Chief Munir wants to maintain control of the power structure. Air Chief Sidhu is attempting to give the Air Force a top role for the first time. Nawaz Sharif may be seeking to take advantage of this conflict to redefine the CDF position to his own advantage. Thus, for the first time, open competition is being seen within the military leadership in Pakistan.
Pakistan is moving towards a ‘dual power center’
The most significant aspect of the 27th Amendment is the creation of the National Strategic Command (NSC). This institution will now have complete oversight and command of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and missile programs. Previously, this responsibility rested with the National Command Authority (NCA), headed by the Prime Minister. However, this authority has now been transferred to the NSC. While the appointment of the NSC chief will be based on the Prime Minister’s approval, the name will be decided based on the recommendation of the CDF. And this position will be held only by a senior army officer. This means that in the future, complete control over Pakistan’s nuclear weapons will be centralized in the hands of the army. Therefore, if the proposal to appoint Sidhu as CDF proceeds, the Constitution will have to be amended again. This means that the biggest reset of the balance of power in Pakistan’s history will occur, sooner or later, as this position is now solely from the army.
